6
Fontina
5yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 57
Charles Town · Race 2 - Claiming · 4f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-28 | Delaware Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-17 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-04 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-03-06 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength68%
Delivery trend +5.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10/2025 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 13% | -0.40 |
| 11/12/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 16/01/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 06/03/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 04/04/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 17/04/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 25/04/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 02/05/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 28/05/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |