3
Knickoletta
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 58
Charles Town · Race 2 - Claiming · 4f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Charles Town | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-16 | Charles Town | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Charles Town | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-11 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-21 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-14 | Laurel Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength50%
Delivery trend +0.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10/2025 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 71% | -0.23 |
| 22/11/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 27/12/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 14/02/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 21/03/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 11/04/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 25/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 60% | -0.26 |
| 16/07/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 08/08/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 78% | +0.09 |