2
Bullet Baby
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 61
Churchill Downs · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
62%
Place Prob
43%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength15%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Ellis Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-09 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-07-12 | Ellis Park | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-05-22 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2024-12-19 | Turfway Park | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▬
Strength78%
Delivery trend -1.9% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 1st of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10/2024 | 9th | 6/1 | 68% | 27% | -0.41 |
| 27/11/2024 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 19/12/2024 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 10% | -0.06 |
| 22/05/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 12/07/2025 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 09/11/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 86% | +0.33 |
| 17/06/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 50% | -0.38 |
| 24/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 86% | +0.04 |