4
Flashy Aviator
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 56
Churchill Downs · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
9/5
Win Prob
15%
Place Prob
22%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 3-3 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength64%
Delivery trend +1.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 57% | -0.30 |
| 29/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 60% | -0.28 |