6
Motown Sound
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 53
Churchill Downs · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength52%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Ellis Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-30 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-10-26 | Hawthorne | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2025-09-28 | Hawthorne | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +4.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/09/2025 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 28/09/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 26/10/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 30/04/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 24/05/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 17/06/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 24/07/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 71% | +0.35 |