Prosecco Gal

3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 84

Churchill Downs · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

21%

Place Prob

25%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼3

Strength35%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 9.5)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.0

Today:

Class gap: +2.5

Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-06-24	Churchill Downs	?	11th	8th	+3	2.0
2026-05-15	Churchill Downs	?	8th	5th	+3	5.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 4-4 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength46%

Delivery trend -8.9% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
15/05/2026	8th	10/1	47%	30%	-0.17
24/06/2026	11th	14/1	26%	0%	-0.26