7
Allison Avenue
3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 75
Churchill Downs · Race 2 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼3
Strength78%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.7 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: +2.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Ellis Park | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2025-10-05 | Keeneland | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2025-09-08 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength80%
Delivery trend +7.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09/2025 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 86% | -0.04 |
| 05/10/2025 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 75% | +0.17 |
| 31/07/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 36% | +0.10 |