Black Magic River
3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 78
Churchill Downs · Race 2 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-26 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-02-26 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-02-05 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2025-12-27 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/12/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 57% | -0.22 |
| 05/02/2026 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 60% | -0.29 |
| 26/02/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 60% | -0.28 |
| 26/03/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |