By La Rina
3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 86
Churchill Downs · Race 2 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
9/5
Win Prob
15%
Place Prob
25%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.5 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Ellis Park | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-07-24 | Ellis Park | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-06-03 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2026-05-07 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2025-10-26 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2025-09-17 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -14.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/09/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 26/10/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 56% | +0.08 |
| 07/05/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 90% | +0.64 |
| 03/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 86% | -0.07 |
| 24/07/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 73% | -0.09 |
| 22/08/2026 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 40% | -0.21 |