1
Lincoln Court
3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 79
Churchill Downs · Race 2 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼3
Strength35%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: +2.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Ellis Park | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 4-9 · 50%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength88%
Delivery trend +0.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/08/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |