Nucleotide

3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 78

Churchill Downs · Race 2 - Maiden Claiming · 6f

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼3

Strength78%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.0

Today:

Class gap: +2.5

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-26	Ellis Park	?	5th	2nd	+3	8.0
2026-06-28	Churchill Downs	?	5th	2nd	+3	8.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 3-3 · 68%

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▼

Strength60%

Delivery trend -43.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
28/06/2026	5th	33/1	0%	60%	+0.60
26/07/2026	5th	14/1	26%	43%	+0.17