5
Statutory
3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 44
Churchill Downs · Race 2 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼3
Strength35%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 9.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: +2.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-18 | Churchill Downs | ? | 9th | 6th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 7-12 · 50%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength12%
Delivery trend +0.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09/2025 | 9th | 10/3 | 82% | 11% | -0.71 |