That's A Benjamin

3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 87

Churchill Downs · Race 2 - Maiden Claiming · 6f

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

83%

Place Prob

58%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼3

Strength78%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.0

Today:

Class gap: +2.5

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-05	Kentucky Downs	?	9th	6th	+3	4.0
2026-07-24	Ellis Park	?	5th	2nd	+3	8.0
2026-06-26	Churchill Downs	?	4th	1st	+3	9.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength35%

Delivery trend -12.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
26/06/2026	4th	5/1	74%	57%	-0.17
24/07/2026	5th	10/1	47%	64%	+0.16
05/09/2026	9th	6/1	68%	27%	-0.41