5
Dagmara
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 100
Churchill Downs · Race 3 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
8/5
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Colonial Downs | BHA98 | 7th | 13th | −5 |
| 2026-07-24 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-04-18 | Keeneland | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-28 | Fair Grounds | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-01-31 | Fair Grounds | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength69%
Delivery trend -3.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 90% | +0.14 |
| 03/01/2026 | 6th | 4/5 | 96% | 38% | -0.58 |
| 31/01/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 91% | +0.12 |
| 28/02/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 18/04/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 78% | -0.01 |
| 04/06/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 24/07/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 07/09/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 14% | -0.57 |