4
Essential Lady
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 96
Churchill Downs · Race 3 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | Canterbury Park | BHA95 | 1st | 6th | −5 |
| 2026-05-15 | Santa Anita | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-02-22 | Santa Anita | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-01-12 | Santa Anita | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-11-28 | Del Mar | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-09-26 | Santa Anita | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength81%
Delivery trend +6.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 28/11/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 63% | -0.09 |
| 12/01/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 56% | +0.40 |
| 22/02/2026 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 15/05/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 27/06/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |