3
Shilling
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 91
Churchill Downs · Race 3 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 2.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.9
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-08-01 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-06-07 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-02-06 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-11-06 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-10-16 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength72%
Delivery trend -2.4% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 63% | -0.19 |
| 16/10/2025 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 06/11/2025 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 06/02/2026 | 4th | 5/6 | 96% | 40% | -0.56 |
| 07/06/2026 | 3rd | 40/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 01/08/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 27/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 71% | -0.14 |