6
Struck At Midnight
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 96
Churchill Downs · Race 3 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-07 | Fair Grounds | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-01-31 | Fair Grounds | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-12-26 | Fair Grounds | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-11-29 | Fair Grounds | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-10-22 | Keeneland | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength61%
Delivery trend -7.8% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/09/2025 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 90% | +0.90 |
| 22/10/2025 | 7th | 3/1 | 84% | 33% | -0.51 |
| 29/11/2025 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 91% | +0.01 |
| 26/12/2025 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 31/01/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 07/03/2026 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 14% | -0.54 |
| 06/09/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 67% | +0.09 |