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4

Mormoneytostart

2yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 62

Churchill Downs · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f

#4

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength48%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 1.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Fairmount Park 04/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR - · 4f110y 120 · HIGHER CLASS4/07C6C6 @ Fairmount Park 25/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 68 · 5f 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 68 par25/07C6OR 68projClass-projected finish: 1st of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-25Fairmount Park?1st-1th+2
2026-07-04Fairmount Park?2nd0th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/0725/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 4-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength54%

Delivery trend +4.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/07/20262nd11/271%80%+0.09
25/07/20261st5/287%100%+0.13