Mr Gerson

2yo Colt · 8-8 · OR 65

Churchill Downs · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼2

Strength58%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 7.7)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.0

Today:

Class gap: +1.5

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-06-04	Churchill Downs	?	10th	8th	+2	1.8
2026-05-21	Churchill Downs	?	10th	8th	+2	1.8
2026-04-16	Keeneland	?	3rd	1st	+2	8.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▼

Strength48%

Delivery trend -33.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
16/04/2026	3rd	25/1	0%	78%	+0.78
21/05/2026	10th	20/1	0%	0%	0.00
04/06/2026	10th	40/1	0%	10%	+0.10