Mr. Grumpy Pants

2yo Colt · 8-8 · OR 47

Churchill Downs · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark

Move▼2

Strength58%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 8.5)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.0

Today:

Class gap: +1.5

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-05	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	10th	8th	+2	1.8
2026-07-26	Ellis Park	?	7th	5th	+2	4.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 4-4 · 68%

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▼

Strength42%

Delivery trend -15.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
26/07/2026	7th	80/1	0%	25%	+0.25
05/08/2026	10th	33/1	0%	10%	+0.10