Red Sun
2yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 63
Churchill Downs · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
22%
Place Prob
28%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 5.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-08-01 | Ellis Park | ? | 8th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-06-24 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-26 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -8.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/05/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 17% | -0.20 |
| 24/06/2026 | 1st | 40/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 01/08/2026 | 8th | 80/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 11/09/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |