Grand Opry

2yo Colt · 8-7 · OR 55

Churchill Downs · Race 5 - Maiden Claiming · 6f

Rank

Odds

15/1

Win Prob

10%

Place Prob

17%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark

Move▼3

Strength78%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 8.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.0

Today:

Class gap: +2.5

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-25	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	9th	6th	+3	4.0
2026-08-05	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	7th	4th	+3	6.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 10-10 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength0%

Delivery trend -20.0% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
05/08/2026	7th	7/2	82%	40%	-0.42
25/08/2026	9th	7/2	82%	20%	-0.62