Baby Max
4yo Colt · 8-10 · OR 105
Churchill Downs · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 1f
#3
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-07-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-06-12 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-03-12 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.2% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/11/2025 | 8th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 10/01/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 15/02/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 89% | +0.20 |
| 12/03/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 88% | -0.06 |
| 18/04/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |
| 15/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 89% | +0.07 |
| 12/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 50% | -0.44 |
| 11/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 89% | +0.42 |
| 30/08/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |