Covert Law
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 99
Churchill Downs · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 1f
#2
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.9 /10 (raw 3.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-06-03 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-07-29 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-07-05 | Ellis Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-06-12 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/03/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 06/04/2025 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 26/05/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 70% | +0.54 |
| 12/06/2025 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 05/07/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 29/07/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 91% | +0.44 |
| 03/06/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 90% | +0.08 |
| 22/06/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 14/08/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |