Green Light
5yo Horse · 8-10 · OR 109
Churchill Downs · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 1f
#1
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
89%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-18 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-18 | Keeneland | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2025-09-10 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-08-02 | Ellis Park | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2025-06-20 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2024-10-09 | Keeneland | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06/2024 | 3rd | 4/5 | 96% | 71% | -0.24 |
| 03/08/2024 | 3rd | 13/8 | 91% | 67% | -0.25 |
| 24/08/2024 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 83% | -0.08 |
| 09/10/2024 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 20/06/2025 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 02/08/2025 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 25% | -0.54 |
| 10/09/2025 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 18/10/2025 | 7th | 11/4 | 86% | 33% | -0.52 |
| 18/02/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 86% | +0.09 |