3
Johny's Rendezvous
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 106
Churchill Downs · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 1f
#6
Rank
Odds
9/5
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: -1.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | Ellis Park | BHA99 | 5th | 10th | −4 |
| 2026-06-24 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Churchill Downs | BHA98 | 6th | 11th | −4 |
| 2026-04-04 | Keeneland | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-11-30 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +3.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 11/10/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 82% | +0.06 |
| 02/11/2025 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 36% | -0.00 |
| 30/11/2025 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 04/04/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 29/04/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 05/06/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 17% | -0.31 |
| 24/06/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 02/08/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |