Pierre
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 111
Churchill Downs · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 1f
#5
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 3.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | -1th | +5 |
| 2026-08-27 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-07 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-31 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +5.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 83% | -0.01 |
| 19/10/2025 | 7th | 11/4 | 86% | 14% | -0.71 |
| 22/11/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 86% | +0.12 |
| 31/01/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 07/03/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 56% | +0.08 |
| 02/05/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 13/06/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 27/08/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 80% | +0.33 |
| 12/09/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |