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4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 106
Churchill Downs · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 1f
#4
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 3.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Penn National | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-07-05 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Monmouth Park | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-04-23 | Keeneland | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-11-01 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-09-27 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.7% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 6th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |
| 13/08/2025 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 75% | -0.15 |
| 01/09/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 14% | -0.02 |
| 27/09/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 75% | +0.07 |
| 01/11/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 60% | +0.34 |
| 23/04/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 71% | +0.35 |
| 30/05/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 14% | -0.33 |
| 05/07/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 14/08/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 40% | -0.18 |