2
Yinzer
4yo Colt · 8-10 · OR 105
Churchill Downs · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 1f
#7
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-27 | Fair Grounds | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-08 | Keeneland | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-09-10 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-08-02 | Ellis Park | BHA102 | 2nd | 8th | −5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength82%
Delivery trend -3.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/2025 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 07/06/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 05/07/2025 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 02/08/2025 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 86% | +0.20 |
| 10/09/2025 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 08/10/2025 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 27/11/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 90% | +0.03 |
| 11/07/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 27/08/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 60% | -0.30 |