Evan On Earth
5yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 97
Churchill Downs · Race 7 - Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
9%
Place Prob
23%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-19 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-12-27 | Fair Grounds | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2025-11-27 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-16 | Keeneland | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-21 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-08-01 | Ellis Park | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +0.8% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/11/2024 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 86% | -0.05 |
| 18/05/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 82% | +0.13 |
| 27/06/2025 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 70% | -0.16 |
| 01/08/2025 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 55% | -0.22 |
| 21/09/2025 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 16/10/2025 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 75% | +0.09 |
| 27/11/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 71% | +0.08 |
| 27/12/2025 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 29% | -0.35 |
| 19/06/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |