Hogie The Player
4yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 93
Churchill Downs · Race 7 - Claiming · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 4.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | Ellis Park | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-04-03 | Keeneland | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-03-21 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2026-02-19 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2025-12-21 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2025-11-12 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06/2025 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 01/08/2025 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 27% | -0.10 |
| 22/10/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 12/11/2025 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 90% | +0.24 |
| 21/12/2025 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 19/02/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 21/03/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 03/04/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 29% | +0.02 |
| 17/07/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |