Ravens Dream
4yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 92
Churchill Downs · Race 7 - Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-24 | Keeneland | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-11 | Keeneland | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-09-17 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-08-01 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-07-05 | Ellis Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +0.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08/2024 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 28/09/2024 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 70% | +0.12 |
| 20/06/2025 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 33% | -0.55 |
| 05/07/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 57% | -0.09 |
| 01/08/2025 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 17/09/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 11/10/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 24/10/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 30/11/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.01 |