Vital Mind
4yo Colt · 8-9 · OR 100
Churchill Downs · Race 7 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
91%
Place Prob
72%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 2.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Ellis Park | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-03-05 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-02-06 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | -2th | +3 |
| 2026-01-03 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2025-11-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2025-03-29 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -11.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/03/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 89% | +0.02 |
| 28/11/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 03/01/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 89% | +0.06 |
| 06/02/2026 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 05/03/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 22/08/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 17% | -0.52 |