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16

Faolio

3yo Gelding · 9-1

Compiegne · Prix De La Basse Automne Handicap · 7f 209y

#10

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#10

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength4%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.6)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Cagnes-sur-Mer 12/01/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR - · 7f100y Ver 12812/01C5C5 @ Cagnes-sur-Mer 02/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR - · 7f100y Ver 1282/02C5C5 @ Cagnes-sur-Mer 21/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR - · 7f100y Sft 12821/02C5C0 @ Saint-Cloud 24/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR - · 7f209y Hvy 13024/03C?C0 @ Saint-Cloud 05/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR - · 7f209y Sft 1225/05C?C0 @ Compiegne 09/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 16 · OR - · 1m208y GS 1249/06C?4 @ Clairefontaine 01/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 16 · OR - · 7f209y GS 1221/084projClass-projected finish: 4th of 15
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-01Clairefontaine44th4th0
2026-06-09Compiegne?3rd3rd0
2026-05-05Saint-Cloud?2nd2nd0
2026-03-24Saint-Cloud?1st1st0
2026-02-21Cagnes-sur-Mer?4th4th0
2026-02-02Cagnes-sur-Mer?5th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/0124/031/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1579% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength86%

Delivery trend -2.3% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 15. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/01/20266th25/10%17%+0.17
02/02/20265th10/147%56%+0.08
21/02/20264th25/10%50%+0.50
24/03/20261st7/163%100%+0.37
05/05/20262nd15/261%92%+0.32
09/06/20263rd11/486%87%+0.01
01/08/20264th5/174%80%+0.06