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5

Mackaya

3yo Filly · 9-4

Compiegne · Prix De La Basse Automne Handicap · 7f 209y

#1

Rank

Odds

35/1

Win Prob

43%

Place Prob

33%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength2%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Saint-Cloud 09/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR - · 7f100y Ver 1289/10C5C5 @ Chantilly 21/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR - · 7f209y Std 12821/11C52 @ Chantilly 12/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR - · 7f209y Std 12512/032C5 @ Compiegne 27/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR - · 7f209y Sft 12827/03C5C5 @ Compiegne 25/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 12425/04C5C5 @ Compiegne 13/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR - · 7f209y Sft 12813/06C5C0 @ Deauville 30/08/2026 · Pos 13th of 15 · OR - · 7f209y Hvy 12830/08C?projClass-projected finish: 13th of 15
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-30Deauville?13th13th0
2026-06-13Compiegne?1st1st0
2026-04-25Compiegne?2nd2nd0
2026-03-27Compiegne?7th7th0
2026-03-12Chantilly25th5th0
2025-11-21Chantilly?5th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/1027/0330/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1564% of fieldRange 11-16 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength4%

Delivery trend -7.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 15. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/10/20257th40/10%54%+0.54
21/11/20255th25/10%64%+0.64
12/03/20265th28/10%50%+0.50
27/03/20267th11/142%33%-0.09
25/04/20262nd9/153%91%+0.38
13/06/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
30/08/202613th25/10%14%+0.14