3
Alpha Spirit
6yo Gelding · 10-2
Compiegne · Prix Des Dauphines - Handicap Challenge · 1m 208y
#8
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Craon | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Clairefontaine | 3 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-07-22 | Saint-Malo | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Clairefontaine | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Dieppe | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Nantes | 4 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1350% of fieldRange 3-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength57%
Delivery trend +3.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11/2025 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 60% | -0.28 |
| 29/11/2025 | 9th | 10/3 | 82% | 20% | -0.62 |
| 14/04/2026 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 30% | -0.41 |
| 11/05/2026 | 12th | 12/1 | 37% | 27% | -0.10 |
| 23/06/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 86% | +0.02 |
| 11/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 83% | -0.05 |
| 22/07/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 07/08/2026 | 9th | 7/2 | 82% | 43% | -0.39 |
| 05/09/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 60% | -0.27 |