4
Circo Massimo
7yo Gelding · 10-2
Compiegne · Prix Des Dauphines - Handicap Challenge · 1m 208y
#10
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲6877
Strength23%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6884.5 /10 (raw 7.3)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C6881.0
Today: 4
Class gap: -6877.0
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Dieppe | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-29 | Clairefontaine | 3 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-07-12 | Deauville | 34392 | 10th | 41276th | −34388 |
| 2026-07-02 | ParisLongchamp | 3 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-03-12 | Chantilly | 3 | 13th | 12th | +1 |
| 2025-11-15 | Le Croise-Laroche | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1342% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength88%
Delivery trend +3.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/05/2025 | 13th | 28/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 17/10/2025 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 03/11/2025 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 15/11/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 12/03/2026 | 13th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 02/07/2026 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 12/07/2026 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 29/08/2026 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 09/09/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |