8
Great Charlie
8yo Gelding · 9-12
Compiegne · Prix Des Dauphines - Handicap Challenge · 1m 208y
#6
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.1 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | La Teste De Buch | 4 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | Le Lion D'angers | 4 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | ParisLongchamp | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-19 | Chantilly | 3 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-04-25 | Compiegne | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-30 | Chantilly | 3 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1358% of fieldRange 6-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength34%
Delivery trend +3.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/01/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 92% | +0.07 |
| 18/02/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 57% | -0.19 |
| 03/03/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 77% | +0.24 |
| 30/03/2026 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 80% | +0.38 |
| 25/04/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 64% | +0.06 |
| 19/05/2026 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 04/06/2026 | 9th | 18/1 | 5% | 47% | +0.41 |
| 02/08/2026 | 12th | 25/1 | 0% | 21% | +0.21 |
| 26/08/2026 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 31% | +0.15 |