5
Inmate
4yo Gelding · 10-1
Compiegne · Prix Des Dauphines - Handicap Challenge · 1m 208y
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength56%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 6.5)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Chantilly | 3 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-08-29 | Clairefontaine | 3 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-08-07 | Clairefontaine | 3 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-07-18 | Dieppe | 3 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-07-04 | Deauville | 3 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-06-23 | Dieppe | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1367% of fieldRange 1-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength52%
Delivery trend +2.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/03/2026 | 9th | 15/2 | 61% | 33% | -0.27 |
| 07/04/2026 | 13th | 18/1 | 5% | 8% | +0.02 |
| 22/04/2026 | 13th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 23/06/2026 | 5th | 17/2 | 55% | 0% | -0.55 |
| 04/07/2026 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 18/07/2026 | 1st | 22/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 07/08/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 93% | +0.14 |
| 29/08/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 04/09/2026 | 9th | 3/1 | 84% | 20% | -0.64 |