2
Orange Vif
7yo Gelding · 10-3
Compiegne · Prix Des Dauphines - Handicap Challenge · 1m 208y
#3
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
14%
Place Prob
16%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength53%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 6.9)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-08-16 | Deauville | 3 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-08-01 | Clairefontaine | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Compiegne | 3 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-05-25 | Compiegne | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-15 | Evreux | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1383% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength93%
Delivery trend +8.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/02/2026 | 15th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 13/03/2026 | 15th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 27/03/2026 | 8th | 11/1 | 42% | 53% | +0.11 |
| 15/04/2026 | 9th | 7/2 | 82% | 11% | -0.70 |
| 25/05/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |
| 13/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 86% | +0.33 |
| 01/08/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 16/08/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 07/09/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 77% | +0.08 |