13
Spinning Mist
9yo Mare · 9-5
Compiegne · Prix Des Dauphines - Handicap Challenge · 1m 208y
#1
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
57%
Place Prob
32%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength30%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 6.8)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Craon | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | Deauville | 3 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-07-12 | Deauville | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-03-13 | Senonnes-Pouance | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-18 | Pornichet | 4 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-02-06 | Deauville | 3 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 13100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +6.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/12/2025 | 13th | 11/1 | 42% | 0% | -0.42 |
| 07/01/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 24/01/2026 | 11th | 18/1 | 5% | 9% | +0.04 |
| 06/02/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 18/02/2026 | 10th | 18/1 | 5% | 40% | +0.35 |
| 13/03/2026 | 3rd | 28/1 | 0% | 87% | +0.87 |
| 12/07/2026 | 9th | 18/1 | 5% | 47% | +0.41 |
| 27/08/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 05/09/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |