8
Incentive Victory
3yo Filly · 8-10
Compiegne · Prix De Fresnoy-la-riviere Handicap · 1m 3f 204y
#12
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 6.6)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Clairefontaine | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Chantilly | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Compiegne | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-16 | ParisLongchamp | 2 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-10 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 120% of fieldRange 9-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength4%
Delivery trend -5.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 14/11/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 10/03/2026 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 16/04/2026 | 7th | 22/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 09/06/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 07/07/2026 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 36% | +0.20 |
| 10/08/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 43% | +0.17 |
| 03/09/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |