3
Purple Bay
3yo Gelding · 8-13
Compiegne · Prix De Fresnoy-la-riviere Handicap · 1m 3f 204y
#8
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength7%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Deauville | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | ParisLongchamp | 3 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Cholet | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Argentan | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Vichy | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1273% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength75%
Delivery trend +0.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/02/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 70% | -0.18 |
| 14/04/2026 | 6th | 13/8 | 91% | 29% | -0.63 |
| 27/04/2026 | 2nd | 22/1 | 0% | 90% | +0.90 |
| 13/05/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 57% | -0.31 |
| 10/06/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 92% | +0.45 |
| 30/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 86% | -0.01 |
| 14/07/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 04/08/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 07/09/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 43% | -0.36 |