IvyArcIvyArc
5

Elusive Belardo

4yo Filly · 9-7

Compiegne · Prix Du Vermandois Handicap · 6f 211y

#12

Rank

Odds

11/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#12

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Chantilly 01/09/2025 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR - · 7f209y Sft 1351/09C53 @ Saint-Cloud 15/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR - · 6f211y Hvy 1203 @ Chantilly 23/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR - · 6f211y Std 12023/03330 @ Compiegne 25/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 1332 @ ParisLongchamp 14/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 16 · OR - · 6f211y Ver 11914/0522 @ ParisLongchamp 04/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR - · 7f209y Sft 1172 @ Compiegne 16/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 16 · OR - · 6f211y GS 11816/0722 @ Deauville 16/08/2026 · Pos 15th of 16 · OR - · 6f211y GS 1173 @ ParisLongchamp 10/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 15 · OR - · 6f211y GS 13110/093projClass-projected finish: 7th of 13
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-10ParisLongchamp36th6th0
2026-08-16Deauville215th15th0
2026-07-16Compiegne24th4th0
2026-06-04ParisLongchamp26th6th0
2026-05-14ParisLongchamp210th10th0
2026-04-25Compiegne304th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/0925/0416/0710/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1325% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength79%

Delivery trend +1.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 13.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/09/202510th9/153%18%-0.34
15/03/20264th33/10%63%+0.63
23/03/20268th20/10%22%+0.22
25/04/20264th20/10%75%+0.75
14/05/202610th10/147%40%-0.07
04/06/20266th18/15%62%+0.56
16/07/20264th18/15%80%+0.75
16/08/202615th12/137%7%-0.30
10/09/20266th14/126%64%+0.38