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2

Nebulae

3yo Filly · 9-6

Compiegne · Prix De Choisy Au Bac Handicap · 7f 209y

#6

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Chantilly 16/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR - · 7f209y Std 12816/03C5C5 @ Saint-Cloud 03/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR - · 1m2f96y Sft 1283/04C5C5 @ ParisLongchamp 28/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR - · 1m208y GS 12828/05C53 @ Clairefontaine 06/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR - · 7f209y GS 1206/0734 @ Clairefontaine 01/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 16 · OR - · 7f209y GS 1221/084projClass-projected finish: 8th of 16
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-01Clairefontaine48th8th0
2026-07-06Clairefontaine31st1st0
2026-05-28ParisLongchamp?2nd2nd0
2026-04-03Saint-Cloud?7th7th0
2026-03-16Chantilly?4th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/033/0428/056/071/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1647% of fieldRange 7-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength38%

Delivery trend -2.7% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 16. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/03/20264th8/158%67%+0.09
03/04/20267th33/10%40%+0.40
28/05/20262nd17/255%89%+0.34
06/07/20261st6/492%100%+0.08
01/08/20268th11/142%53%+0.11