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3

Maria Joana

3yo Filly · 9-1

Compiegne · Prix De Vieux Moulin Handicap · 7f 209y

#13

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#13

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 6.7)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Le Lion D'angers 20/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR - · 1m1f207y GS 12020/04C5C5 @ Le Lion D'angers 07/05/2026 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR - · 1m1f207y Hvy 1287/05C5C5 @ Craon 04/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR - · 7f209y Sft 1284/06C53 @ La Teste De Buch 26/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR - · 1m208y Gd 12026/063C0 @ Chantilly 19/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR - · 1m1f207y Sft 13219/07C?C0 @ Clairefontaine 07/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR - · 1m2f205y GS 1317/08C?C0 @ Deauville 27/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR - · 1m1f97y Std 12727/08C?projClass-projected finish: 4th of 15
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-27Deauville?6th6th0
2026-08-07Clairefontaine?8th8th0
2026-07-19Chantilly?8th8th0
2026-06-26La Teste De Buch35th5th0
2026-06-04Craon?5th5th0
2026-05-07Le Lion D'angers?11th11th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/0426/0627/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 157% of fieldRange 5-15 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength36%

Delivery trend -12.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 14th of 15. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/04/20264th28/10%73%+0.73
07/05/202611th25/10%23%+0.23
04/06/20265th25/10%60%+0.60
26/06/20265th20/10%60%+0.60
19/07/20268th14/126%46%+0.20
07/08/20268th11/271%42%-0.29
27/08/20266th15/261%62%+0.01