1
Tapwrit Warrior
5yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 53
Delaware Park · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m
#8
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength32%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | Delaware Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Delaware Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Delaware Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength47%
Delivery trend +6.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10/2025 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 19/11/2025 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 17% | -0.44 |
| 14/12/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 44% | -0.08 |
| 21/05/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 20/06/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 71% | +0.56 |
| 08/07/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 08/08/2026 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 21/08/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 10/09/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |