Lastchance Romance
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 87
Delaware Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
60%
Place Prob
48%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.6 /10 (raw 3.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-24 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-05-28 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-06 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-04-09 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-12 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 17% | -0.20 |
| 27/12/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 26/02/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 12/03/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 09/04/2026 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 60% | -0.31 |
| 06/05/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 28/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/6 | 96% | 80% | -0.16 |
| 12/06/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |
| 24/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/8 | 93% | 60% | -0.33 |