5

Miss Ida B

3yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 74

Delaware Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f

#4

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move
Strength46%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Churchill Downs 31/10/2025 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR - · 7f 119 · HIGHER CLASS31/10C6C9 @ Oaklawn Park 02/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 79 · 6f 120 · beat its mark02/01/2026 · OR 79 parC7 @ Oaklawn Park 08/02/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 77 · 6f 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark08/02/2026 · OR 77 par8/02C7OR 77C8 @ Oaklawn Park 27/02/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 72 · 6f Fas 122 · below its mark27/02/2026 · OR 72 parC8 @ Oaklawn Park 24/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 61 · 6f Slo 117 · beat its mark24/04/2026 · OR 61 par24/04C8OR 61C7 @ Delaware Park 23/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 62 · 6f 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark23/05/2026 · OR 62 parC7 @ Delaware Park 24/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 69 · 5f Gd 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark24/06/2026 · OR 69 par24/06C7OR 69C8 @ Delaware Park 10/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 71 · 6f 118 · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 71 parC8 @ Delaware Park 11/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 72 · 6f 120 · below its mark11/09/2026 · OR 72 par11/09C8OR 72projClass-projected finish: 4th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-11Delaware Park?6th6th0
2026-07-10Delaware Park?1st1st0
2026-06-24Delaware Park?6th5th+1
2026-05-23Delaware Park?5th4th+1
2026-04-24Oaklawn Park?1st1st0
2026-03-19Oaklawn Park?0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today31/1027/0224/0611/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength33%

Delivery trend -7.0% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
31/10/202510th50/10%10%+0.10
02/01/20261st6/168%100%+0.32
08/02/20268th33/10%22%+0.22
27/02/20268th20/10%0%0.00
24/04/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
23/05/20265th9/153%33%-0.19
24/06/20266th8/158%29%-0.29
10/07/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
11/09/20266th13/266%17%-0.49