Ardanwood
8yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 75
Delaware Park · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Delaware Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-19 | Keeneland | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-09-25 | Delaware Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-08-23 | Delaware Park | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2025-07-30 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10/2024 | 7th | 11/4 | 86% | 25% | -0.61 |
| 23/03/2025 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 31/05/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 30/07/2025 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 23/08/2025 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 17% | -0.46 |
| 25/09/2025 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 19/10/2025 | 9th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 06/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 88% | +0.35 |
| 03/09/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 44% | -0.35 |